Sunday, November 8, 2015

Knicks vs. Lakers

You got to be a real NBA fan to be watching this mid-afternoon game on an NFL Sunday. The key for me was giving up fantasy football. I stopped playing this season and it's amazing how quickly my interest dropped in the NFL.

This game felt like something out of the mid-90's. You had a guy on each team isolating and taking a bunch of hero-ball shots, not a lot of spacing on the court, a lot of line-ups with two big men and a lot of post-ups. What's irritating is that both teams have a lot of interesting young guys who could fit really well into modern NBA offenses. I at least understand the direction that Phil Jackson is trying to take the Knicks - I'm not really sure what the Lakers are trying to do exactly.
  • The first thing that jumps out watching the Lakers is they are going to lose a ton of games this season because they play zero defense. They are starting two rookies and a second-year guy on one extreme and a 37-year old guy on the other and they are asking Roy Hibbert to bridge the gap pretty much single-handedly and he isn't exactly 2009 Dwight Howard. If you put him behind a bunch of athletes who understand the scheme and can funnel penetration to him, Hibbert can do something. There just isn't much to be done with this group personnel-wise and it's not like the Lakers are bringing a bunch of stoppers off the bench either. I wonder if the Suns regret giving up their pick for Brandon Knight.
  • The other problem is there's no role differentiation whatsoever. Whose job is it on this team to move the ball and play defense? Larry Nance? Everyone on the perimeter needs the ball in their hands the same way a man drowning in the ocean needs water. It kind of feels like they are all taking turns hunting for their own shot and there's no real flow to the offense. What makes it worse is there's no space. Everyone wants to point the finger at Byron Scott but it all goes back to the front office. 
  • You compare how the Blazers are building a team around Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to what the Lakers are doing with D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson. I think that's the best-case scenario for their back-court of the future - a much taller version of the Blazers backcourt with two 6'5 guys who can play on and off the ball, take turns running the offense and hoisting 3's off the dribble. Both Russell and Clarkson have really high releases so it's going to be hard for a lot of smaller defenders to bother their shot. What could make things really interesting is what the two of them could potentially do on defense with their length but that's obviously way down the road.
  • I feel bad for Russell because he's kind of walked into a worst-case scenario in terms of utilizing his skill-set. He's a spread pick-and-roll guy all the way - he comes off ball screens with the threat to shoot, drive or pass and he makes a decision based on what the defense gives him. He's not a super athlete so he's not a guy whose going to isolate and create his own shot at will or finish over the top of a bunch of defenders packed in the paint. He's playing next to two ball-dominant guys on the perimeter with a front-court that doesn't have anyone who can stretch out the defense. He only gets so much time with the ball in his hands and he doesn't have a lot of room to operate and he doesn't have the versatility to impact the game as a role player in the same way as guys like Justice Winslow and Stanley Johnson. 
    • I kind of look at it like he's a spread QB in college who was drafted for his stats and now he's being placed in a pro-style offense in the NFL and being asked to make it work. This is not the way he was successful at the NCAA level and if you are going to draft a guy based on how well he played in NCAA (and not on physical tools) you should probably put him in a system that tries to utilize him in a similar way.
    • At the same time, it really isn't that big of a deal for a rookie to struggle in his transition to the NBA. This should be a good learning experience for Russell because he's going to play in tight spaces all season and he's going to have to try and figure out how to make it work. Byron is getting a lot of slack for benching him for bad D but he didn't play a lot of defense in college and he might as well start learning good habits now. They are going to have to make a lot of changes to the roster next season but for now the Lakers are throwing Russell into the fire and hoping his talent shines through.
  • This was a really tough game for Julius Randle and the match-up with Kristaps Porzingis was kind of what I was worried about when projecting him to the next level. Porzingis length just swallowed him up in the paint and he could play a step off Randle and neutralize some of his quickness when he was facing up on the perimeter. A couple of times he reached over the top of Randle's arms and took the rebound from him like he was a little kid. Randle's going to have to learn to minimize his length deficiencies at the NBA level - he has to put his body on a guy like Porzingis and really seal him off. 
    • Hibbert is also a terrible fit for Randle on offense because he's just sitting in the middle of the paint and clogging up the lane, making it impossible for Randle to drive the ball. There was nowhere for him to go in the half-court so he ended up taking a lot of step-back jumpers, which is not really the strength of his game. Randle needs to be paired with a big man who can open up the paint and allow him to attack in space and have the option to either finish or make the quick pass. For now, Julius should just be pushing the ball constantly off defensive rebounds because where he can really thrive is in transition. The big worry for him is can he finish in traffic with his length - Blake has T-Rex arms too but he's not a Blake-level athlete - which is less of an issue in the open court.
    • It's obviously going to be tough to find the rim protector + spacer combo at the 5 next to Randle. Adreian Payne seems to have fallen out of favor in Minnesota so they might be able to take a flyer on him. They could also throw a lot of money at a guy like Meyers Leonard in the off-season. Lakers fans probably don't want to hear that but that's the type of FA they should be looking at.
  • You can see the outlines of a young core with Russell, Clarkson and Randle if you can find 3-and-D guys at the 3 and the 5. The worry I would have is whether the FO is drafting with a grand plan in mind or whether they have just been taking the biggest name in the lottery who put up the most stats at the NCAA level and had the biggest reputation coming into the draft. Randle and Russell were both flashy offensive-first guys, which is fine, but I feel like I'd want to take one and not the other in consecutive drafts. Or maybe the Lakers were just trying to maximize assets and hope to flip them for a star? The problem with that is they end up canceling each other out and eating into each other's stats because there's only one basketball.
  • I haven't wanted to say much about Kobe because what is there to say about this? This is just completely out of control. 15.6 FGA's a game on 32.1% shooting isn't a stat-line. It's a cry for help. At least with Melo he's still pretty close to his prime so you expect he'll bust out of the slump. This is a super old guy in his 20th season hoisting up terrible shots constantly. I'm not sure why you'd expect anything to change results-wise unless he changes his approach. What he can still do at a high level is pass the ball and he made a couple of really good passes on Sunday - at some point you would hope he would move into more of a playmaker mode, if only to try something different. 
    • Are the Lakers running a fantasy camp for Kobe? What is going on here? Even if winning games isn't the top priority, they could at least try to develop talent or maybe run a functional NBA team where roles and responsibilities are divvied out in some relation to the relative ability levels of the guys on the roster. Sometimes the most loving thing you can do for someone is to say no and stop enabling them.
Clarkson, Russell and Randle is a really fun trio and Clarkson is one of my balikbayan brethren but I'm not sure how much of this team I'm going to watch this season. They are going to be freaking terrible and their young guys aren't going to be put in a position to succeed so it's probably best to reserve judgment and see what type of roster the Lakers come up with in 2017. As far as the Kobe stuff goes, yea it's kind of funny but it's also kind of sad. When it comes to basketball, I'm not much for sentiment. Old guys who can't really play anymore don't do much for me.
  • It's all Porzingis all the time in New York. He's just a super-compelling figure because you can see a lot of the evolution of the game in his skill-set and the way he ends up being utilized in New York is going to be an interesting window into the way the league is moving.
    • You have to love the length that he used to lock up Randle in this game. He's just absurdly long and it allows him to match-up with guys who are much faster and stronger than him. What it makes you wonder is whether he could stay as a 4 in a small-ball league or if he eventually moves to the 5. It's going to be hard for wing players to take advantage of Porzingis on defense because he's a smart player and he's fast enough to where he can move his feet and still contest shots on the perimeter with that 7'6 wingspan.
    • My guess is that Phil wants to keep Porzingis at the 4 because he's trying to build a team like the 2010 Lakers. He bullied the rest of the league with Pau and Odom upfront and that really wasn't all that long ago. If everyone is going small and he has a mobile 7'2-7'3 guy who can score over the top of people on the block and cover up the paint on defense as a 4 ... maybe Phil can really start the counter-revolution.
    • His ceiling as an offensive player is going to depend on how good of a shooter he becomes because he gets a clean look pretty much whenever he wants. That's the thing about Dirk comparisons. Saying a 7'0 who can shoot can be like Dirk is like saying a 6'3 who can shoot can be like Steph Curry. It's a make or miss league and Dirk was one of the best shooters of all-time so it made sense for him to base his game around the threat of the jumper. If Porzingis is only a good shooter, than he's going to want to go in a different direction.
    • I think like most stretch big men Porzingis is more comfortable using his speed to go around slower guys than trying to use size to score over the top of smaller ones. That's where you would think he would end up as more of a 5, where he could kill people on pick-and-pops and drive the ball at the rim. 
    • What you have to like about him as a rookie is that he's not afraid to stick his nose in the action and play rough-and-tumble even though he's frail as hell and built like a stick figure. He's going to pick up a lot of fouls this season but who cares really. He's a young 7'0 who plays very aggressively so foul trouble comes with the territory. You would rather he be committing crimes of commission as opposed to crimes of omission. That's where the problem of the Knicks trying to compete for a playoff spot while also developing a 19-year old at the starting PF position comes into play.
  • I hope Carmelo hasn't been playing like this all season but his stat line seems to suggest otherwise. It was like Kobe was rubbing off on on him or something. He was just taking absurd shots and not really trying on defense. He was dying on screens and at one point he doubled Roy Hibbert in the post and left a guy wide open from 3. It was also a lot like Kobe because he was making some really good passes last night but it was overshadowed by some of the egregious crimes against shot selection that he was throwing up. Either way he's going to start making shots pretty efficiently because that's what he does but he is going to need to play defense for a playoff push to be realistic.
  • Speaking of defense, it blows my mind that Jose Calderon is a starting PG in 2015. I was thinking two years ago the Mavs were going to have to buy his contract out. That Tyson for Calderon trade was kind of the original sin for Phil Jackson in New York and that's what has lead them on the road to where they are half-in, half-out when it comes to rebuilding vs. competing. I'm not trying to be mean because Jose is a nice guy but his final season in Dallas was the worst season of guard defense I think I've ever witnessed at the NBA level. His lack of athleticism has also sapped into his offense too because he can't get by anyone and it's hard to get assists when you can't get into the lane or draw an extra defender. And now he's not making shots either? 
  • I can see why they aren't starting Jerian Grant because that's a lot of pressure to put on a rookie guard. He has to worry about getting his own shot, getting shots to everyone else and playing defense at the toughest position in the league. It's enough to make your mind go a million miles an hour and on top of that you have to run the offense and control tempo and appease all the different vets who need the ball. Grant is their best playmaker, though, and he has a great feel for the game. The problem is that he doesn't have great burst so he really needs the jumper and it isn't there right now.
    • The tough part about evaluating Grant is that he's already 23. D'Angelo Russell won't be that age until 2019. 
  • Langston Galloway was +17 in 27 minutes and he brings them athleticism, activity level and defense that they desperately need on the perimeter while also being a good shooter. I can see where they want an energy guy like that off the bench to change the dynamic of the game but sometimes you can overthink these things as an coach. You want to play your best guys as much as possible if you are trying to win games. They need Galloway and Grant and they don't need Calderon and Vujacic - it doesn't take much viewing of this team to make that pretty clear.
My guess with the Knicks is they are still probably a guard away - possibly two - if they are going to grab a playoff spot out East, even with Arron Afflalo. I'm just not really seeing Calderon and Vujacic as contributors on an NBA playoff team in 2016. The middle of the East is actually fairly competent this season so the question becomes what happens with Carmelo if the Knicks aren't in the Top 8 at the deadline and then things get really interesting.
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Mavs vs. Pelicans

When people say that the NBA season is too long and that teams play too many games, this is the type of game they are thinking about. The Pellies were playing in the second night of a back-to-back with six rotation players out while the Mavs are still trying to find their sea legs with 3/5 of their starting line-up dealing with lingering injuries, minutes restrictions and off-season surgeries. To top it off, the two teams are playing again on Monday in New Orleans. There was just no need to stuff an extra game in that three-day span and the result was some really ugly and uncompelling basketball played in front of a disinterested home crowd that didn't have many chances to get into the game. It was the farthest thing from fantastic.

  • The story with New Orleans is always Anthony Davis and when he rolled his ankle in the first-half it put them behind the 8-ball in a way they never really recovered from. They needed peak AD in all 39 minutes he was on the floor and he didn't really seem to get his timing and explosiveness back until after the half. I have much more about him coming in a feature for RealGM.
  • Alexis Ajinca had 8 points on 4-5 shooting and he was +7 in his time on the floor but you still saw the holes in his game and why Alvin Gentry only gave him 16 minutes. He has a decent mid-range jumper and he can protect the rim but he has hands of stone and he's not the most nimble or quick-reacting player either.
  • Ajinca is an NBA player but I'm not sure you need to sign a backup 5 to a long-term deal when the market for back-up 5's is more flooded than it has ever been. What I mean by that is AD is going to have play at least some time at the 5 this season behind Asik and that's going to be the case for a lot of teams in the league - 4's are becoming backup 5's and 3's are becoming backup 4's so your roster needs fewer 5's and more 4's and 3's than a generation ago. What that also means is that a guy like Ajinca is going to go up against significantly better competition on a nightly basis at his spot in the rotation. Nene, Tiago Splitter, Joakim Noah, (possibly Andrew Bogut), Kosta Koufos - these guys are all backup 5's now.
  • Luke Babbitt was getting blown by on the perimeter by a clearly hobbled Chandler Parsons and I'm not sure who that says more about. New Orleans played him as a 3 and Dallas played a lot of different line-ups so he ended up guarding a lot of different types of players and whoever he was guarding - whether it was a guard, a wing or a big man - had a huge advantage and the Mavs repeatedly attacked him whenever he was on the floor. He had 5 fouls in 19 minutes, which pretty much summed up his night. His three-point shooting is helpful but I'm not sure you can really play him as a 3 and there's no point in playing him as a 4 on a team with Davis and Ryan Anderson. You don't need a pale imitation of Anderson playing next to Anderson.
  • Rick Carlisle praised Ish Smith before the game but I kind of wonder if he was playing possum because the Mavs had the scouting report down on him cold and they exposed a lot of his weaknesses tonight. Mainly that he can't shoot and he can't finish at the rim. He's really fast and he's a great passer but it's hard for a 5'10 guy to succeed at the NBA level if the other team doesn't have to guard him - Ish missed several wide open shots at the front of the rim and I'm still not quite sure how he managed to pull that off. The smaller you are, the fewer holes you can have in your game and Ish has a lot of them. There's a reason this guy has played on 10 teams in 6 seasons. 
  • Eric Gordon had a good all-around game and he knocked down a few huge 3's to key a 4Q comeback but his shot selection still left a lot to be desired. Just because you can rush up the shot doesn't necessarily mean you have too - not when you are playing next to Anthony Davis. If you get him the ball on most possessions good things are probably going to happen. As a Mavs fan, I watch Gordon and I really worry a lot about Chandler Parsons knee surgery. These things don't always get better and Eric Gordon is the perfect example of a guy who was never quite the same after he went under the knife. 
  • Dante Cunningham had a tough game I think because he was playing mostly as a 3. I hate playing 4's as 3's in the modern NBA. Cunningham is a good shooter but he's not a 3-point shooter and he's a good defender but he doesn't need to be getting down in a stance and chasing smaller guys 25+ feet from the rim. He should be in a smaller role as a 4 playing next to Davis as a 5 but the Pels don't exactly have a lot of options in their rotation right now and he's one of a number of guys being stretched beyond their comfort zone.
  • I'm not really sure Alonzo Gee is an NBA player but he's definitely a great athlete at 6'6 225. When the Pels put him on Parsons, it was over. There was just no way for Parsons to get around him - Gee was pressing him full court and there was nothing he could do. I guess he has a role as a defensive stopper but he only played in 54 games last season and he couldn't stick in either Denver or Portland because you have to play on both ends of the floor to last in the league and he doesn't seem to have any particular strength on offense.
  • I'm pretty positive Toney Douglas is not an NBA player. He only played in 12 games for the Pels last season and that was his 6th team in 4 years. His calling card as an NBA player was his speed and defensive ability and he's not very fast anymore. He stole the ball late in the game and was on a breakaway and it was a glacially slow breakaway. I get that New Orleans has some familiarity with him but I have a hard time believing he was the best guard not currently in the league when the Pels signed him.
  • This is probably how I'd have the New Orleans rotation with everyone healthy:
    • 1-3: Holiday, Cole, Pondexter, Evans, Gordon (they are all fairly interchangeable - slide them in and out depending on whose playing well)
    • 4: AD (20%), Anderson (50%), Cunningham (30%)
    • 5: Asik (35%), AD (65%)
What all these injuries have really exposed is the very back of the Pels roster. They have a lot of guys - Ish Smith, Toney Douglas, Kendrick Perkins, Alonzo Gee - who probably shouldn't be in the league anymore. 99% of the time not maximizing spots 13-15 on your roster isn't a big deal but this is one of the times that it is. The same thing happened in OKC last season when they tried to get cute by giving roster spots to guys like Sebastian Telfair. When that caliber of player has to play 20-25 minutes a night in the NBA, he gets exposed pretty quickly. A team that's playing two guards like Ish and Douglas in crunch time is just going to have a hard time beating anyone. A good front office wins those type of decisions on the margins and that's one area where the Pels have really come up short in recent years.

The sad part about it is there's a lot of 5th and 6th guards on NBA rosters who are dying for a chance to play and who I'd love to see get the type of chances that the guys in New Orleans have gotten. Some names that intrigue me scrolling through the depth charts - Russ Smith, Seth Curry, Shelvin Mack, Ian Clark, Spencer Dinwiddie, KJ McDaniels (!!), Glenn Robinson III, CJ Wilcox, Tyler Ennis, Ray McCallum, Garrett Temple. This is going to be beating a dead horse but I'd sure love to see Perry Jones 3 on this roster.
  • Dirk was awful in the first half and pretty good in the 2nd half - the only difference was that his shot wasn't falling early and started going in late. When his shot isn't falling, something that happens a lot more often these days, it is bad news bears for the Mavs because he sure isn't doing much else.
  • I am really worried about Parsons. It's not so much that he's playing with zero lift and can't get off the ground or get around more athletic defenders right now. It's more the timeline of the whole situation.
    • He sits out for two weeks at the end of the last season because of lingering knee issues. They bring him back for the playoffs and he plays 35 minutes in Game 1 and doesn't look very good so he gets shut down for the rest of the series. After that, they announce he needs a minor knee surgery which ends up being a "hybrid microfracture" which they keep super hush-hush the whole time.
    • There's only two possible explanations - they rushed him back too quickly and he ended up making the injury worse or he never should have been playing on that knee in the first place. If it was a minor surgery maybe it's not that big a deal except that it has been six months and he can barely move and he's on a 15-minute a night restriction - that doesn't really sound like the recovery period from a minor surgery!
    • You put it all together and you can't help but wonder if they are rushing him back again because I can't say I can recall many guys coming back from a knee surgery and playing that few minutes on it for such a significant period of time. It's not a stress injury in the foot or the back - either a knee is right or it isn't. If this all goes away by Christmas and he's at 100%, all's well that end's well. If this is lingering all season, questions have to be asked.
  • I also can't over-emphasize how much this team needs Chandler Parsons. He's the only guy between 6'5 and 7'0 on the roster who can play defense and create his own shot. If they play with any type of size on the perimeter, they are super limited on offense and if they play their best offensive players they have to go with super-small all guard line-ups that get roasted on defense and there isn't exactly a lot of help behind them on that side of the ball.
  • It's the same deal with Wesley Matthews, who has made a miraculous recovery from an Achilles injury but is nowhere near back to 100%. Why a team with relatively low expectations is rushing to get a guy who just signed a $70 million contract back on the floor as soon as humanly possible I leave up to the reader. He's not shooting the ball too well and he's not moving too fast but they still have to have him out there because there's pretty much nothing behind him. The 2P% is going to tell the tale with Matthews this season and he's sitting at a solid 33.3% at the moment. 
  • Deron Williams has been playing a little passively dealing with all the lingering injury issues he has and that's not going to get it done. He has to be out there creating offense because no one else in the starting line-up is doing it. He doesn't really move that well anymore but he's still big as hell for a PG with a great handle and a good shot so he can always create something. I'd like to see him more in the post where he can take advantage of his size. When he's playing well, this version of the Mavs has a chance. 
  • So far this season, Dallas reminds me a lot of those Brooklyn teams that Williams was on. They got a lot of big names with a lot of history but they are S-L-O-W. The two most explosive players in their starting unit are both coming off serious injuries and playing on minutes restrictions. This has to be the slowest starting 5 in the league and their transition defense is non-existent. The lowlight had to be everyone watching Toney Douglas amble his way to the rim after he stole the ball in the 4Q. If a fast team can get the Mavs playing in space on defense, it's over. Until Matthews and Parsons get healthy, I fully expect them to lose every single game they play against a good team.
  • The story of the night for the Mavs was Dwight Powell - he had 15 points and 7 rebounds on 9 shots and he was +20 in 26 minutes. He pretty much single-handedly kept them in the game in the first half and he probably should have won his 2nd consecutive Plains Capital Bank Player of the Game Award. He's going to struggle with consistency and there are going to be nights when his shot isn't falling and he's not playing much defense but the Mavs absolutely have to have him out there. He gives them badly needed energy and athleticism in their frontcourt and he gives them a guy who can finish at the rim, step out to 20 feet and put the ball on the floor and do interesting things with it. The nice thing about the extended run he has gotten at the beginning of the season is that he's starting to play with more confidence because he knows he can have 1-2 bad plays and Carlisle isn't going to yank him immediately.
  • That's pretty much the opposite of the situation with Justin Anderson who I don't expect to play much at all this season. The game is way too fast for him right now and Rick has zero confidence in him even though on paper his skill-set is exactly what this team needs. His problem is that his entire offensive game depends on his 3-point shot and it's hard for a rookie who A) has never shot from that far before B) has never played so few minutes before and C) has never had a smaller role in the offense before in his life to walk into the league and be a consistent 3-point shooter. Pretty much all the value he can provide will come on defense and in transition and that's a pretty tough task for a rookie whose never seen any of these players before, doesn't know their scouting reports and has never faced these types of athletes before.
    • Long story short, Rick Carlisle doesn't play rookies and I don't expect Anderson to break that trend.
  • Jeremy Evans hasn't played much early in the season but the Mavs are going to need to see what they have in him because they need as much length, athleticism and energy as they can find. I'm intrigued by line-ups with Evans and Powell upfront, which would be by far the bounciest duo that Carlisle could put on the floor. That's a combination that could work really well with a healthy Parsons. 
  • In lieu of a long-winded and repetitive rant about JJ Barea, I'll just leave it like this:
I don't watch many Mavs road games because I see so much of them at home so the 3 games this week - TOR, CHA, NOP - were my first extended look at this team this season. It was hard to watch. There was a lot of really bad basketball in that stretch and I found myself asking a lot of existential questions about what I am doing with my life as I biked home from these games. Lets just put it this way - I'm counting the days until Javale McGee gets healthy. 
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Thursday, November 5, 2015

Magic

At RealGM, a look at why you have to look beyond their win-loss record to see how much the Magic have improved this season.
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Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Bucks vs. 76ers

This wasn't all that interesting a game from a standpoint of watching high-level NBA basketball but it did feature a lot of fascinating match-ups between young talent, particularly in the front-court. Both these teams are trying to build for the future and it could be an interesting rivalry just from the perspective of two differing ways of rebuild - slash and burn in Philly vs. try to stay competitive and build from the middle in Milwaukee.

The Bucks have a lot more vets on their roster and that was a huge part of the reason they were able to add Greg Monroe this off-season. The 76ers would probably say they don't want to add a guy like Monroe and that free agency is a loser's game for a small-market franchise. It's the same reason they dumped MCW to the Bucks last season. Are they making the perfect the enemy of the good or are they making the right long-term moves by not boxing themselves into guys with clear holes in their game? 
  • Maybe the most impressive thing about Jahlil Okafor early in his NBA career is how under control he plays. He's in his first week in the league and the game isn't too fast for him. He has a pretty decent feel for the floor and for spacing and he knows how to draw a double team in the post, when to kick it out and when to go up strong. He's obviously got great touch around the rim and he's a pretty good passer already. 
    • He was going up against the Ghost of Christmas Future for him in Monroe. They aren't exactly the same player because Jahlil is a little thicker and he's more dynamic off the dribble but they share a similar skill-set in terms of being post-up big men with questions about their jumper and their defense. Monroe should be a lesson for Jahlil. If you don't become a better shooter and a better interior defender, it doesn't matter how good you are as a scorer because you are probably going to be playing on a lot of bad basketball teams.
  • What would really take Jahlil's game to the next level is the consistent 15-20 foot jumper. If he can force defenses to respect his shot, he can use his quickness to get around them and be absolutely deadly. For the moment, other C's are just going to leave him open on the perimeter. He does have a nice counter with his ability to dribble into the floater, though. I don't care how big you are - everyone in the NBA should be able to shoot the teardrop off the dribble. It adds 5+ points to your game.
  • Nerlens Noel needs a little refinement. He makes a lot of the right decisions but the results still aren't quite there. It feels like he doesn't have any touch around the basket, like he's just throwing the ball at the vicinity of the rim and hoping it goes in - a little softer shot and he would be a pretty good offensive player. He's also got the right idea on a lot of his passes but they aren't quite on target at the moment. He's a guy who should benefit from playing as many possessions as possible on a bad team and getting a lot of NBA reps in a low-pressure situation to develop his game.
  • Nerlens is really a modern NBA C. He's not great playing with his back to the basket and he's still got a long way to go in terms of being able to defend the post. He's long and lean and built like a No. 2 pencil so he struggles to body up against a thicker big man like Monroe on the block. Where he should be able to shine is in the two-man game on both sides of the ball - he has the quickness to defend on the perimeter and the athletic ability to catch and finish above the rim.
  • It seemed like both Nerlens and Jahlil played better when the other wasn't on the floor just from the extra space it provided them. Philly can't really run the two-man game when they have both C's on the floor and both guys can be really effective when they are diving to the rim in space. Most good C's can, which is one of the main reasons why you are seeing just about every team in the league starting to play more 4-out. It seems like the obvious move for Brett Brown is to stagger their minutes as much as possible and always have one of the two in the game at the C position.
  • The guy who would really benefit from playing more 4-out is Jerami Grant. I don't watch a ton of 76ers basketball but when I do I am always interested in what he is doing. He was a combo forward with limited range on his jumper at college which means he's a 4 in the modern NBA. He's super fast and super long and he's gotten a lot better with the ball in his hands - he made some nice passes on the move on the way to 3 assists on Wednesday. He also had 4 blocks because he's a magnet for activity around the rim. If he had a consistent 3-point shot, he could be a really good player in this league but it feels like you can say that for half the guys on this roster. Apparently being unable to shoot is the new market inefficiency.
  • Grant (+22) and Nik Stauskas (+17) had by far the best plus-minus for Philly tonight. I'm thinking that's because Grant was the 4 when they were playing small and Stauskas shooting and ability to space is just absolutely crucial next to a bunch of jokers who the other team isn't guarding outside of 5 feet. Stauskas is going to stick in the league a long time because of his shooting - the question is whether he can diversify his game enough to be a starter. He had a nice alley-oop to Jahlil in the two-man game but he also got ripped a couple times when trying to create against the Bucks ball pressure. JJ Redick is the obvious comparison which means he needs to be spending a lot of time in the weight room. If you aren't going to be super fast at your position at least have some core body strength.
  • TJ McConnell definitely helps this team because he's a "true PG" who makes the easy play, knows how to set his teammates up and run an offense and doesn't make a lot of bad decisions. That 12 assist to 1 turnover ratio is one of the main reasons why the 76ers were in this game. The question for him long-term is whether he can become a more consistent shooter. He's never going to be a great defender or shot-creator but he has to able to force teams to respect him when he's playing off the ball. As the smallest guys on the floor, PG's need complete games and there are enough holes in his game to where I didn't think McConnell would be able to make it in the league. He's not very big and he's not very fast so he just has to be able to make 3's. 
  • I can't say I saw much of Richaun Holmes at Bowling Green but there's a lot to like in terms of him being long, athletic and super bouncy. Can he shoot though? That's the question with every 4 in the modern NBA.
  • Same deal with Jakarr Sampson. He's a crazy athlete. Can he shoot though? If the 76ers can figure out a way to get all these guys to shoot, they could really have something. Maybe Brown should have brought Chip Engelland over with him to Philly.
  • Shout out to Phil Pressey. I remember him when he was at ESD in Dallas straight dunking on fools at 5'9 maybe. He's super fast and he's a great playmaking PG but he can't shoot 3's and that's just not going to work in the modern NBA at his size. Get in the gym and start shooting or you are going to have to upgrade that passport real quick. Philly is like the opposite of that old saying about New York - if you can't make it here, you can't make it anywhere.
This game was pretty much a rock fight for most of it because neither team can shoot very well and they both played a lot of traditional two big-man line-ups that only further cramped their style. Things got going in the 4Q when both teams started playing 4-out with shooters, which has kind of been the theme of the first week of the NBA season. It doesn't matter who you are or who is on your roster, it is almost impossible to score against modern NBA defenses if you can't space the floor and just about everyone is better off when they add more shooting to their line-ups. 
  • This was Jabari Parker's first game back from ACL surgery. He looked like he was moving OK and he looked like he had been spending a lot of time in the gym. He looked thicker and like he had less baby fat - like he has to be substantially heavier than Nerlens at this point. The key for his whole game is the jumper, especially adding some range on it so that he can become a knock-down 3-point shooter. As it stands now, other teams are going to make him the long 2 king and he doesn't have the super quickness (ala Giannis) to where he can blow by guys who are giving him 1 or 2 steps on the perimeter. He has to make people respect the outside shot.
    • The other big thing for him is passing the ball, which he has the capability of doing but didn't do too much of it at Duke. Carmelo is quicker and a better shooter so he had an easier time getting away with being 1-dimensional than Jabari will. 
  • Giannis looked absolutely fantastic tonight. He's definitely put on some weight and he's a legit 6'11 so he can cover pretty much every position on the floor. He's crazy quick and he has a great handle and surprisingly good passing chops for a guy his size. He's almost impossible to stay in front of and he has the length to finish over the top of just about anyone in the paint. Don't even think about letting him get out in transition, where he's absolutely murder. He was even hitting the jumper on Wednesday, which will take his game to whole different level. There has kind of been a bit of a backlash on Giannis on Basketball Twitter but he still has franchise player written all over him to me. I just hope the Bucks can put enough shooting around him to really maximize his talents.
    • I'll put it this way - I'm taking Giannis over Wiggins. He's bigger and longer and he has a much better feel for the game. Like the Wolves, the Bucks spend a lot of time trying to pound the ball into their star young wing and it certainly feels like Giannis is more dangerous down there, although I don't have any numbers to back that up. At 6'11, he can put pretty much any perimeter player on his back and then spin into an open shot.
  • Greg Monroe did Greg Monroe stuff all night. Contrary to their reputations, he actually had a much easier time scoring over Nerlens in the post than Jahlil because he could just bully him and push him under the rim while Jahlil had the sheer size to push him out of the paint. Monroe is kind of the opposite of Nerlens in that his defense is pretty good in the post but it is very questionable in the two-man game. The 76ers didn't have the personnel to run a lot of pick-and-roll at Monroe but you can bet that better teams will. That's one of the reasons why I'm pretty sure that switching out Ersan Ilyasova for Monroe was a net win for the Pistons. 
    • Here's a hot take which may not be all that hot now that we're one week into the season. I think Detroit will finish ahead of Milwaukee, which would say something about Monroe's game and how he affects his teammates. I don't want to blame Monroe completely for the Bucks being 30th in the league in defensive rating right now but man that does not look good. 
  • Khris Middleton has a ton of size for a 2 guard and the Bucks really tried to force the issue with him on the block against the smaller 76ers guards. It wasn't all that effective but you can see why they tried it because his shoot just looks so smooth and smaller players can't even affect it really. He's just super crucial to what they are doing on both sides of the ball and he would make just about every team in the league significantly better if he were on it. He's the epitome of the modern 3-and-D wing.
  • Jerryd Bayless didn't have a great game against Philly and he seems like one of those guys whose better playing as a 2 and just hunting shots as opposed to having to run an offense. He's a better shooter than MCW, though, which means the Bucks might just have to stick with him in the starting line-up because otherwise Middleton is the only guy out there whose consistently stretching the floor.
  • That dynamic is why I suspect we may see some Tyler Ennis action this season, even when everyone is healthy. Ennis is a lot like McConnell in that he's a great pure PG with defensive questions - the difference is that he's a much more consistent shooter. That's what you have to love about Philly. 4rth string PG's on average at best teams would get serious minutes with them. I like Ennis but undersized and unathletic PG's just don't get a lot of chances at this level of basketball and he has to be one of a million young guys around the league who would murder someone for the chance to get 30+ minutes a night with the 76ers.
  • While Greivis Vasquez didn't shoot all that well, he was still +20 in his 22 minutes on the floor which shows just how desperate the Bucks were for someone who could shoot the ball and run the offense tonight. I'm guessing he will end up closing most games for Milwaukee this season because there just isn't enough space out there when Giannis, Jabari and Monroe are all in. 
  • The other guy who was crucial off their bench was Chris Copeland, who was +10 in 10 minutes. It was the same basic idea - once they put Copeland in there, they were playing 4-out and they were actually capable of attacking the rim, moving the ball and creating open shots. I'm kind of surprised it took Jason Kidd until the 2nd half to go with Copeland because they absolutely need to have his floor spacing out there with the 2nd unit.
  • Kidd went with Johnny O'Bryant III at PF in the 1rst half and JOB is exactly the type of PF whom is getting squeezed out the league. He's big and athletic and can compete on the boards but he's not a great shooter and there were way too many possessions (i.e more than 0) that ended with him firing up a wide-open long 2. He's a classic 4/5 tweener and I get the feeling those guys aren't long for the league. 
  • Rashad Vaughn is a lot like Stauskas. That's great that you are a shooter but can you do anything else? Shooting will keep a young guy on the roster but a good team needs their shooters to not be totally one-dimensional. Can you play defense? That's probably a stretch for a rookie but Vaughn needs to be able to attack a close-out, move the ball and shoot acceptable percentages from 2 if he's going to get consistent playing time in Milwaukee. If he is playing while not doing those things, that's a pretty good sign that Kidd is out of ideas and the Bucks could struggle to get back to the playoffs.
I like Milwaukee's young talent but I wouldn't be stunned if they took a step back this season. They just have to find more shooting. It's the lifeblood of the league. The good thing about having Kidd as your coach is that if there are answers on your roster he's going to find them. He does as good a job as any coach in the league of maximizing the talent on hand. 
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Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Wolves vs. Blazers

The Flip Saunders stuff before the game was obviously the big story in Monday but the game itself was interesting in its own right. Both teams have some talent and are capable of competing on a nightly basis but they are both still in the stage of the rebuilding process where it's more important to develop younger players than go all out towards winning. What this season is going to come down to for both Portland and Minnesota is what they can figure out about the young players on their roster and what they will know coming into the off-season about the pieces they have on hand and the best way to build for the future.
  • The one thing that jumped out to me about the starters in Minnesota is that they should be able to play pretty good defense, which is something you don't see all that often from a basement-dwelling team. Ricky Rubio is one of the best defensive PG's in the NBA, Karl Towns and Andrew Wiggins are two of the rare young players who came into the league ready to play defense and what Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince lack in athleticism they make up for in length and veteran savvy. Garnett and Towns are both mobile enough to defend on the perimeter and they can both protect the rim while Rubio, Wiggins and Prince are one of the longest perimeter trios in the league.
  • The problem on offense is that Minnesota is going to be the king of the long 2's this season - Prince and Garnett, in particular, both love stepping in and launching jumpers from 20+ feet, which is one of the more unfortunate legacies of Flip's basketball philosophy. Neither one of those guys has much left in their legs and it's unclear how much, if anything, they will be able to contribute on offense. To make matters worse, Rubio, Towns and Wiggins were all launching from long 2 range as well. Rubio's jumper is getting better but I don't know if I want him taking 5+ shots a game from that range in the pick-and-roll and not probing and looking to get everyone else involved.
  • The guy who needed the ball more is Towns. He was dominating Mason Plumlee in the post where he has the size to establish deep post position, the length to shoot over the top of smaller defenders and the soft touch to finish from multiple angles around the rim. He can just do everything so well and it is incredible to watch. He's a five-tool player who can shoot, pass, rebound, defend and score at a high level and there are very few things on a basketball court that he cannot excel at. I love watching complete big men and Towns was probably my favorite player to ever watch at the NCAA level. The more minutes, the more touches and the more shots that he gets, the more good things are going to happen for the Wolves.
  • Minnesota got seduced a bit by the size mismatch between Andrew Wiggins and CJ McCollum and they repeatedly tried to pound the ball into Wiggins on the block. They were able to do that because Towns and Garnett's shooting ability allows them to invert the offense but the results weren't all that impressive. The difference between the way Wiggins plays on the block and the way Towns does is what people mean when they talk about "polish" and "feel for the game". Towns is never in a hurry and he plays the game at his own pace while Wiggins is always trying to play 100 miles an hour and rush up shots. In terms of shot distribution, I would much rather have Towns taking 17 shots and Wiggins taking 9 than the other way around.
  • Wiggins can struggle to score in the half-court because he isn't a great jump-shooter or ball-handler. At this point in his career, he's better off as a finisher than a creator and I think you want to have him cutting to the rim, crashing the offensive glass and getting ou and running in transition. There are a lot of ways to leverage a size mismatch besides isolating out at 15+ feet and trying to bully your way to the rim. I think you gradually want to grow him in a bigger role on offense ala what the Spurs did with Kawhi Leonard. Minnesota doesn't have that type of talent but Towns and Rubio are going to distribute the ball and make the right play so Wiggins should be able to thrive using his athleticism to play off them and generate points without having a ton of offense run through him.
  • The one thing that the Wolves need to figure out is the role distribution on this team because there are so many guys capable of creating their own shot. You have Wiggins, Towns and Rubio in the starters and then just about everyone on the 2nd unit - Zach LaVine, Kevin Martin, Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng - is more comfortable with the ball in their hands. They almost have too much young talent for their own good at times. I think I would try to have it as run everything through Rubio and run everything with Towns and I would want to have more staggering of minutes so that the first team and the second team aren't self-contained units, which they mostly were on Monday.
  • You got a taste of the good and the bad with the Zach LaVine experience against Portland. He was so bad in the first half it's hard to put into words. He was very tentative when it came to running the offense and the 2nd team punted away most of the lead the starters had opened up the game with. It took them forever to get into sets and it felt like a miracle when he just got the ball to someone else with time left on the clock for them to do something. In the second half you saw some of the flashes - he's crazy fast and he can create a ton of separation when he elevates for his jumper. When he's attacking the rim, he can make the right play and hit the open man on the move. 
    • I would definitely want to play LaVine some with Rubio just to give him some time off from the mental burden of running the offense and let him attack in space and do what he does best. As is, he's going to have some absolutely brutal on/off numbers if he's Rubio's primary backup all season. This is a good example of what a rebuilding team does - the Wolves would probably be better off with either Andre Miller or Ty Jones running the backup point but they believe in LaVine's potential and they want to find minutes for him in the rotation so that he can continue to grow.
  • You are probably better off playing LaVine on the wings but there aren't a lot of minutes there if you are committed to Wiggins and Shabazz and then you have Prince and Kevin Martin playing huge chunks of the game. Martin still does what he does best off the bench - hoist up a lot of shots, draw fouls through veteran trickeration and generally score the ball without doing much to make everyone better. He'll keep them in a lot of games this season but I don't know how much value he really adds to a rebuilding team if he's taking away shots from all of the younger players that need them. While he would theoretically be good trade bait for a contending team, the Wolves don't even really need any more young assets and he's so bad at defense it's hard to say how much he would really help a team trying to win.
  • The obvious way to ease up on some of the numbers crunch is to play smaller at the PF position with either Shabazz or Wiggins. They are both really strong players who should be capable of handling that load, especially against 2nd units. More importantly, I would rather they use their speed against bigger players in a spread floor than spend all night trying to pound smaller players in the post in tight spaces. Bjelica is a decent stretch 4 but you can replicate a lot of the spacing while adding speed and defense by playing a 3 as a 4, which is the way the league is going these days.
    • Basically, I'd want to see a lot more line-ups like this: Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, Shabazz, Towns. Get out and play fast, run pick-and-rolls with Rubio and Towns and have your younger guys shooting 3's and exploiting driving lanes to attack the rim.
  • The one thing I do like is the C rotation of Dieng and Towns. That's two young big men who can score the ball in the post, defend the rim, step out and shoot jumpers and distribute the ball out of the high post. That's one of the better two-man C rotations in the league already and I'm really not sure they need Nik Pekovic even when he comes back.
Portland was pretty much a two-man team all night with Lillard and McCollum doing all the heavy lifting when it comes to the offense and everyone else being asked to just do their part when it comes to spacing and defending. The key for them this season is figuring out what they can get from their young frontcourt players as well as whether the two PG duo will be able to survive on defense against bigger teams.
  • I'm really skeptical of starting two undersized guards together in Lillard and McCollum but I can't deny that it worked pretty well on Monday. As I talked about earlier, Minnesota spent most of the game trying to isolate Wiggins on McCollum and it didn't work all that well while Portland was able to take advantage the other way by running much more efficient two-man offense and having two guys capable of scoring from all over the floor playing off of each other.
    • Nevertheless, the bottom line for me is that I don't think that's going to work in a playoff series where you have to defend two high-level perimeter scorers. I feel like there's a real ceiling on a team which starts two guys who can only defend the PG position and neither of them can even do that all that well. I guess they will cross that bridge when they get to it tough because obviously Portland is a long way away from having to worry about how they match-up with teams in the playoffs.
  • This is a perfect spot for Al-Farouq Aminu as he gets to play in tons of space next to McCollum, Lillard and all of their stretch big men while his length, defensive versatility and ability to crash the boards are perfect next to two undersized guards. He went 2-5 from 3 last night, which really hurts my heart as a Mavs fan, and as long as he can knock down long-range shots he's going to be a very valuable player in the modern NBA. They went to a 4-out line-up with AFA at the 4 at the end of the game and I wonder if that is where he would be most valuable - he can switch pick-and-rolls and compete on the glass like a much bigger player and a team with him at the 4 next to three shooters is going to really spread the floor and play really fast.
  • That type of line-up would really help Meyers Leonard, who had a very forgettable game playing as a 4, where he mostly just stood around the perimeter and launched jumpers without making a huge impact on the game. He's an athletic 7'0 who can play above the rim and knock down jumpers - you want to play him at the 5 and use him in the two-man game. He can space as a 4 but he's not taking guys off the dribble and he's not posting anyone up either. 
  • It was the same story for Ed Davis, who really didn't do much as the backup 4. He can't shoot the ball and he can't score against smaller players so it's hard to see how much value he brings to the floor in the modern NBA. He's long and athletic and he gets a lot of boards but he's not a great rim protector to where you want him as a 5 and he's not perimeter-oriented enough to where he can thrive as a 4 and there are going to be less and less spots for tweener big men as the game continues to evolve. 
  • The No. 1 question for Portland this season is what do they have with Noah Vonleh. He's a complete mystery box - he has a fascinating collection of tools but he didn't play all that much as a freshman on a bad Indiana team and he was stuck to the end of the bench in Charlotte as a rookie. What can he do and what are the strengths of his game? Can he consistently shoot the ball? Can he score out of the post? Can he be a threat as a driver? Does he know how to pass? The intriguing thing is what he can do on the defensive end of the floor - he is very fast for a guy with his size and frame. The Blazers need to find some way to get offense from their 3-4-5 positions and Vonleh is the one guy in their young core who may have the ability to do that. It's just hard to say right now. The more he plays, the more intriguing Portland becomes.
  • Allen Crabbe is an interesting wing player and he's the guy who would benefit the most from AFA playing more as a 4. Him and Mo Harkless are in direct competition for minutes and Crabbe is a much better three-point shooter. Even though he's much less experienced, he played much better on defense on Monday on Kevin Martin than Harkless, who repeatedly got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and ended up picking a lot of silly fouls on Martin. Crabbe's a shooter with length and athleticism - if he can play good defense and diversify his offensive game to where he's a consistent threat when attacking a close-out, he could turn out to be a really good player for them.
What Portland and Minnesota seem to share is they both have really good scouting departments. For teams that were competing for playoff spots only 2 seasons ago, they both have a ton of young talent on hand which could accelerate the rebuilding process. Rubio and Lillard are great places to start a rebuilding effort and they should be able to make the guys around them better, whether it's Vonleh, Crabbe, Leonard and McCollum in Portland or Towns, Wiggins, LaVine, Shabazz and Dieng in Minnesota. The more their teams can figure out what they have in those guys, the better off they will be going into the future.
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Monday, November 2, 2015

Heat vs. Rockets

I was really looking forward to this game because these are two of the most interesting teams in the NBA right now. The Heat and the Rockets both have a ton of talent up and down their roster but they are integrating a lot of big pieces and trying to figure out their identity and who works well with whom. The good news for Miami is they have one of the best coaches in the business in Spo and he's not wasting any time moving guys around and aggressively looking for the best combinations. Kevin McHale's a little slower on the draw, which is one reason why Houston is off to such a slow start.
  • The big difference between the first half and the second half was that Miami stopped turning the ball over and letting Houston getting easy run-outs in the open court. Spo altered a few of his rotations and got some better combinations of players on the floor, which forced the Rockets to try and score in the half-court and made them look like they were running in mud. From there, Miami started going offense to defense and getting points the other way and things got out of hand pretty fast. 
  • The real key for the Heat was the play of Hassan Whiteside. He's freaking insane in the pick-and-roll game - he's big and long, he has great hands, he can play way above the rim and he's got a great feel for catching, taking 1-2 steps to move around guys and then dunking. He's a lot like Andre Drummond in that there's really no reason to post him up when you can get such great efficiency from having him roll to the rim. He did have a nice move when he faced-up Montrezl Harrell in the 3Q and that's really what he should be doing when he is isolating. He's long and lean and he doesn't have a great base of lower body strength so trying to score with his back to the basket isn't playing to the strengths of his game.
  • When he's locked in on defense, Miami really goes to another level. He had 2 blocks and 3 steals but there were still a lot of times when he was late to a rotation and not doing a great job of getting his hands up. Whiteside is kind of like what Javale McGee was supposed to be. If he can just continue to grow in terms of the mental side of the game, he's going to get a max contract in the off-season. If you don't believe me, look at how good he would look with the Lakers or the Mavs. Guys like him don't come around him all that often. 
  • The really interesting thing about the way Miami was playing on Sunday was that Whiteside played a lot better as a 4-out center with a wing next to him than with Chris Bosh. You are seeing the 4-out revolution in real time - even the most skilled 4's like Bosh and McRoberts have a hard time being as effective from 25+ feet than 3's who are playing as 4's. Bosh was way better as a 5 than a 4 and that's something you'll see Spo going to a lot this season. My guess is he'll have either Bosh or Whiteside as the 5 all game long and that adjustment should push Miami to another level.
  • The Rockets went with Trevor Ariza at the 4 with Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas out and Bosh had trouble taking advantage of him in the post. He didn't really get going in the game until he was playing in more space as the 5 and taking advantage of his speed advantage over slower 5's than trying to leverage his size advantage over smaller 3's. What kind of world are we living in where even Chris Bosh is struggling at the 4? The game is changing so fast these days it's insane.
  • What this type of line-up switch really means is that it squeezes Josh McRoberts playing time. I love McBob's game but he doesn't have the defense to play as the only big man in a spread floor and Miami is probably more dangerous putting smaller guys like Luol Deng at the 4 next to Bosh and Whiteside. When they do go with 2 traditional big men, I'd assume Bosh would get most of the minutes at the 4 in conventional line-ups.
  • The other domino effect is that it moves Amare Stoudemire out of the rotation completely, which isn't really a surprise if you were paying attention to him in Dallas and New York. He just can't move anymore and his defense is so bad it's laughable. The way to look at it is like this - he's only really effective as a small-ball 5 and minutes at small-ball 5 are some of the most precious in the league. That's a great position to succeed on offense so you have to be a really good player to justify getting any time in that slot. This is why I have faith in Spo - I knew it wouldn't take him very long to ice Amare out the rotation. He's a sharp guy and he's trying to win. He doesn't have any time for nonsense.
  • Same thing with Udonis Haslem. I know Spo has a soft spot for him but the NBA is a ruthless business and the margin for winning and losing is not very large. Just ask the Rockets right now. You had better maximize your line-ups and not leave any points on the board on either side of the ball if you want to keep up.
  • Deng kind of has to play at the 4 because he really doesn't have the lift in his legs or the explosiveness athletically to be a high-level 3 anymore. With so many ball-dominant guys in Miami, they need speed + shooting at his spot in the rotation and he provides a lot more of that as a 4 than as a 3. 
  • The other side of that coin at SF is Justice Winslow is playing so well that he's going to need as many minutes as possible. The only real concern about him transitioning right away was his ability to knock down 3's so if he can maintain that 3-point shooting percentage he has to be out there all the time. He's 19 with an NBA body - he can play defense on the perimeter right away and he's got a great feel for the game. He can already run the pick-and-roll game at a high level and create shots for other people off the dribble. The guy I comped him to coming out of Duke was Andre Iguodala - he's just a jack of all trades guy who can do everything at a pretty high level. It's just going to be a matter of how well his shooting percentages and offensive efficiency hold up over the course of an NBA season.
  • Wade doesn't have a ton of speed anymore and it was pretty jarring to see the Rockets put Marcus Thornton on him to start the game. The strength of his game these days is playing out of the post, running the pick-and-roll and trying to bust out the floater. It's crazy to say but I'd be more worried about him as a playmaker than a scorer and if he's playing with shooters around him I'd try to put a longer guy on him and hope to contain him 1-on-1. What's going to be key for him is being able to knock down stand-still jumpers, either as a turnaround in the post or from spotting off the ball from 3. I've been saying this for awhile - if he can make that Jason Kidd transition and start consistently knocking down 3's, he'll be able to play until he's 40, if his body can hold up.
  • Miami is still trying to figure out the combination of Wade and Dragic. There were a lot of times against Houston when Wade was holding the ball in the post and Dragic was standing around the perimeter not doing much. I think it's going to have to be a lot like Whiteside and Bosh so that one of their two star guards is in the game all the time, ensuring that they both get plenty of time with the ball in their hands. 
  • If they are doing rotations like that, the key is going to be finding three-point shooting from the supporting cast on the perimeter. For guys like Mario Chalmers, Tyler Johnson and Gerald Green, it's all about knocking down 3's because Miami needs that spacing from everyone else to open up the paint for their stars. That's why I'm high on Green this season - he can get really hot from 3 and I feel like he could have a big season just feasting on the attention that all the more high-profile players in Miami.
I was surprised to see the Heat so low on many of the pre-season projections because they have so many talented players. Like, man for man, is Houston THAT much more talented than Miami? The question is whether the Heat will be able to maximize all that individual talent and I have faith in Spo to be able to do that. The main thing to watch with them going forward is whether they can go small and maintain their defense or whether they feel the need to play bigger and how much that affects their offense. 
  • Where to start with Houston? I guess let's go with James Harden, who continued his abysmal start to the season with a 2-15 shooting line that featured an 0-10 performance from beyond the arc. The nice thing about Harden is that he's a well-rounded player so he can still impact the game with 14 trips to the line, 6 rebounds and 7 assists when his outside shot is off. There's not much more to say than that - he missed a lot of reasonably open shots that he normally makes. This explanation makes as much sense to me as anything:
  • The one thing with Harden in comparison to guys like Russ and Steph is that he isn't as ridiculous an athlete as Westbrook so he doesn't get as many wide open shots and he isn't as pure a shooter as Curry so he's not quite as dangerous from 3. The margin for error for him is smaller than with some of the other stars in the league, which you saw in the WCF against Golden State. Even when he was cooking against the Warriors, it was because he was making some flat-out ridiculous shots.
  • The real concern with Houston is the play of Ty Lawson, although an adjustment period was always going to be in the picture. 
    • The offense: They need him scoring the basketball. He got into the lane fairly easily but he was playing too unselfishly in terms of looking to distribute. The Rockets don't have the type of shooters to where Lawson can just be setting guys up all night. He's their 2nd best shot-creator and he needs to look for his own offense on a nightly basis so 1-3 from the field isn't cutting it. The concern is that he's not an elite shooter and he's so small that even the slightest loss in explosiveness and burst is going to really impede his ability to score in the paint. If he doesn't have the Tony Parker floater shot in his game, he needs to develop it yesterday.
    • The defense: Lawson's offense will figure itself out. The real concern is the defense. He's just so freaking small that there's almost nothing he can do. Goran Dragic was looking like a giant playing next to him and he could drive the ball right at him and post him up whenever he wanted. This is what happened to him in the Nuggets series against the Warriors in 2013 - where are you going to hide this guy on defense in a high-level playoff series? He's a great player but I really worry that playing him big minutes puts a ceiling on your team when it comes to the playoffs.
      • Lawson's play in 2013 was a low-key reason why I think Isaiah Thomas couldn't get paid two seasons ago. As great as he is on offense in the regular season, you have to be able to defend your position or at least hold your own on a cross-switch in the playoffs. Little guys like that are just going to get killed match-up wise. I feel like the league is really going to those all 6'6+ wing line-ups the Warriors use, which effects the more traditional big men but also the super small guards as well.
    • Here's another way to look at it - when was the last guy as small as Ty Lawson started on a championship team? Don't even say JJ Barea because that was an adjustment thing where Rick Carlisle took advantage of Spo falling asleep at the wheel and leaving Mike Bibby in his starting line-up until Game 6 of the Finals. 
  • I don't think it's a coincidence that Patrick Beverley was -5 and Lawson was -23 on Sunday, let's put it that way. Beyond the big picture concerns, Lawson's effort level on defense was just terrible. He might want to think about putting a body on Tyler Johnson at some point.
  • Marcus Thornton was a nice adjustment from McHale. He's going to have to play a lot for the Rockets this season because he's the one guy in their supporting cast besides Jason Terry whose a pure shooter. Houston has a ton of guys who fire up 3's but Thornton is one of the only ones whom you have to stick too on the perimeter.
  • Trevor Ariza at the 4 created some real advantages for Houston in the first half and he has the size to be a Harrison Barnes type when it comes to sticking bigger 4's in the post. As much as I love Jones and Motiejunas, I wonder if they get caught in the same trap that Bosh and McRoberts are in Miami when it comes to the way the league is moving at the 4 position. If those guys are going to be successful as modern 4's, they need the ball in their hands and that's probably not going to happen in Houston, although they do need to figure out how to find some shot-creation in their frontcourt to diversify their offense.
  • One thing I wonder with the Rockets is whether it might make sense to play bigger around Harden ala the Warriors with a bunch of 6'5+ wings who can shoot 3's and defend and Ariza a the 4. That's where KJ McDaniels comes in and he's someone who should get a chance pretty quickly if things don't start turning around. Go something like Thornton - Harden - McDaniels - Ariza - Brewer or have 4 of those guys and one of your rim-running 5's in the game.
  • Why did Clint Capela only play 14 minutes? That was the real head-scratcher for Houston. He's like a slimmer and smaller version of Whiteside in that he's crazy effective as a finisher in the two-man game. He's also a much, much better rim protector than Chuck Hayes and Montrezl Harrell and I really have no idea why McHale went to line-ups with those two at the 5 over Capela in the 2nd half. Plus/minus isn't everything but Montrezl was -18 as a small-ball 5 and Clint was +4. 
  • There's a lot to be excited about when it comes to Montrezl but I feel like he falls into a trap as a small-ball 5 that's going to be hard to get out of. He really can't space as a 4 and he struggled with the size of Whiteside when playing as a 5. When Dwight and Capela are healthy, I'm just not sure where the minutes are for Harrell, despite how efficient he has been on offense and how much energy he plays with.
I'm not terribly concerned about Houston and I think the key adjustment is going to be having one of Dwight or Capela in the game all long as the 5 and running them in pick-and-rolls with a spread floor. That should improve the defense and it should make the game a lot easier on Harden and Lawson. From there, they just have to make sure they get enough shooting and perimeter defense from the other spots in the rotation. The one area where they can bump their ceiling up is getting more offense from the 4 position from either Jones or Motiejunas. If those two guys aren't on their game, though, they are going to have to go pretty fast to Ariza and Brewer at the 4 and playing pure 4-out basketball.

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Warriors

At RealGM, a look at the defending champs fast start to the season.
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