Monday, May 12, 2014
Top 5 C's of 2015
At RealGM, our position-by-position series of the top NBA prospects coming back to school concludes with the centers.
Saturday, May 10, 2014
The Clippers Achilles Heel
In a game as competitive and as well-played as Game 3 of Clippers/Thunder, every possession is important and every part of the game is crunch time. You can lose a game like that at almost any stretch of the 48 minutes. For the Clippers, one weakness jumped off the screen on Friday- when DeAndre Jordan was on the bench and Glen "Big Baby" Davis was operating as the backup 5.
If we're being honest, his real nickname should be something like Fatty McGoo. He's listed at 6'9 290, but he's easily pushing 300 pounds and he just cannot move his feet at an acceptable level on the defensive end of the floor. He doesn't have much length either, which means it's open season at the front of the rim when he's in. In the 11 minutes he played, LA was -12, a huge number in a game this close.
Reggie Jackson went bananas in the second quarter, scoring 6 points on 3-4 shooting. He just put his head down and went right to the front of the rim, knowing that Davis could do nothing as the second line of defense. His only resort is to take a lot of fouls - he had 4 personal fouls in his time on the floor, which went a long way towards putting OKC in the penalty in the second quarter.
Compounding the problem is the Clippers lack of perimeter defenders on the second unit - there isn't a stopper among Darren Collison, Jamal Crawford and Jared Dudley. As a result, even with the Thunder giving away possessions by playing Caron Butler and Derek Fisher, the Clippers second unit was still bleeding points. They gave away the 4 point lead they had at the end of the 3Q in 4 minutes in the 4rth.
Davis doesn't offer much on the offensive end of the floor either. He's a decent mid-range shooter, but he can't shoot 3's and he has trouble finishing around the rim, given the lack of lift in his legs. He's a good passer and he's prety skilled, but he's just being exposed at this level of the game. He was the 4rth big man on the Celtics 2008 championship team for a reason - PJ Brown just brought a lot more to the table.
At the very highest levels of the game, the difference between winning and losing is razor thin. Going back to 2010, I thought Kendrick Perkins tearing his ACL helped swing the NBA Finals to the Lakers because it exposed Davis lack of defense in Game 7. If you take a possession-by-possession look at that game, you see him killing the Celtics in the fourth quarter because of his lack of defense.
Davis' ineffectiveness means Jordan doesn't get nearly the rest he needs and Griffin basically can't come off the floor in the second half. Considering how hard those two are playing and the level of physicality in the paint, that could really wear them down as this series goes on. Every championship team needs at least three big men and right now, it looks like the Clippers are one short.
It may not end up costing them in this series, since OKC has its own problems on their second unit. However, whether it's in the second round or the Conference Finals or even the NBA Finals, at some point having Glen Davis as their third big man is going to cost LA. Every minute matters in the playoffs and every minute he is on the floor, he is a weakness waiting to be exploited.
If we're being honest, his real nickname should be something like Fatty McGoo. He's listed at 6'9 290, but he's easily pushing 300 pounds and he just cannot move his feet at an acceptable level on the defensive end of the floor. He doesn't have much length either, which means it's open season at the front of the rim when he's in. In the 11 minutes he played, LA was -12, a huge number in a game this close.
Reggie Jackson went bananas in the second quarter, scoring 6 points on 3-4 shooting. He just put his head down and went right to the front of the rim, knowing that Davis could do nothing as the second line of defense. His only resort is to take a lot of fouls - he had 4 personal fouls in his time on the floor, which went a long way towards putting OKC in the penalty in the second quarter.
Compounding the problem is the Clippers lack of perimeter defenders on the second unit - there isn't a stopper among Darren Collison, Jamal Crawford and Jared Dudley. As a result, even with the Thunder giving away possessions by playing Caron Butler and Derek Fisher, the Clippers second unit was still bleeding points. They gave away the 4 point lead they had at the end of the 3Q in 4 minutes in the 4rth.
Davis doesn't offer much on the offensive end of the floor either. He's a decent mid-range shooter, but he can't shoot 3's and he has trouble finishing around the rim, given the lack of lift in his legs. He's a good passer and he's prety skilled, but he's just being exposed at this level of the game. He was the 4rth big man on the Celtics 2008 championship team for a reason - PJ Brown just brought a lot more to the table.
At the very highest levels of the game, the difference between winning and losing is razor thin. Going back to 2010, I thought Kendrick Perkins tearing his ACL helped swing the NBA Finals to the Lakers because it exposed Davis lack of defense in Game 7. If you take a possession-by-possession look at that game, you see him killing the Celtics in the fourth quarter because of his lack of defense.
Davis' ineffectiveness means Jordan doesn't get nearly the rest he needs and Griffin basically can't come off the floor in the second half. Considering how hard those two are playing and the level of physicality in the paint, that could really wear them down as this series goes on. Every championship team needs at least three big men and right now, it looks like the Clippers are one short.
It may not end up costing them in this series, since OKC has its own problems on their second unit. However, whether it's in the second round or the Conference Finals or even the NBA Finals, at some point having Glen Davis as their third big man is going to cost LA. Every minute matters in the playoffs and every minute he is on the floor, he is a weakness waiting to be exploited.
Friday, May 9, 2014
Tiago Splitter's Value
Tiago Splitter is not the type of guy whose game jumps off the screen or appeals to the casual fan. He was run off the floor by the Miami Heat in last year's NBA Finals, who went 4-out and forced the Spurs to go small. So when he got a 4-year $36 million contract from San Antonio in the off-season, a lot of eyebrows were raised. In their fist two games against Portland, he has showed why he's such an important piece for them.
At 6'11 245, Splitter has exceptional size for a PF, which allows him to match up with guys like LaMarcus Aldridge and make them work for points. In contrast to the first-round series against the Rockets, where he could shoot over the top of Terrence Jones like he was a chair and go around like Omer Asik like he was playing in molasses, Aldridge has struggled against Splitter, whose just long, fast and strong enough to play straight up D on him.
Splitter's not a shut down defender by any means, but he's an excellent weapon for the Spurs in the West, where they have to go up against top-tier PF's in almost every series. He did a great job on Dirk Nowitzki in round 1 and he was absolutely vital for them in last year's Western Conference Finals, where he matched up with Zach Randolph. With Splitter as the primary defender on him, Aldridge went 12-25 and 6-23 in Games 1 and 2.
Aldridge is going to have better games as the series goes on, because he's one of the best scorers in the league and not even Splitter can really contest his turn-around J. What Splitter can do is hold him to 23-27 points on 45% shooting while allowing the rest of the San Antonio defenders to stay at home on the Portland shooters. That's a lot of points but it's not the 28-30 points on 55% shooting he was getting against Houston.
Just as important, Splitter is skilled enough to not destroy the Spurs spacing on the offensive end of the floor. Houston was very reluctant to go with Dwight Howard-Omer Asik in the frontcourt because neither guy can step out and hit jumpers or make any plays from the high post. Splitter isn't an All-Star or a primary option, but he's a skilled big man with a good feel for the game who can play high/low with Tim Duncan.
He's not a guy who can command a double team in the low post and he's not really a guy who can punish teams for going small against them, but almost all the top teams in the West have high-level PF's who force you to play two-post for most of the game. Without Splitter, San Antonio doesn't have the personnel to match up them. Memphis doesn't beat them in 2011 if Splitter is playing big minutes.
So while Splitter wouldn't be that useful in a rematch with Miami in the Finals, San Antonio is going to need him if they are going to make it that far. He's not great at any one facet of the game, but when you are at 7'0, you don't really need to be. Splitter is decent at offense and decent at defense - he doesn't have any huge holes in his game, which makes him more than worth what the Spurs are paying him.
At 6'11 245, Splitter has exceptional size for a PF, which allows him to match up with guys like LaMarcus Aldridge and make them work for points. In contrast to the first-round series against the Rockets, where he could shoot over the top of Terrence Jones like he was a chair and go around like Omer Asik like he was playing in molasses, Aldridge has struggled against Splitter, whose just long, fast and strong enough to play straight up D on him.
Splitter's not a shut down defender by any means, but he's an excellent weapon for the Spurs in the West, where they have to go up against top-tier PF's in almost every series. He did a great job on Dirk Nowitzki in round 1 and he was absolutely vital for them in last year's Western Conference Finals, where he matched up with Zach Randolph. With Splitter as the primary defender on him, Aldridge went 12-25 and 6-23 in Games 1 and 2.
Aldridge is going to have better games as the series goes on, because he's one of the best scorers in the league and not even Splitter can really contest his turn-around J. What Splitter can do is hold him to 23-27 points on 45% shooting while allowing the rest of the San Antonio defenders to stay at home on the Portland shooters. That's a lot of points but it's not the 28-30 points on 55% shooting he was getting against Houston.
Just as important, Splitter is skilled enough to not destroy the Spurs spacing on the offensive end of the floor. Houston was very reluctant to go with Dwight Howard-Omer Asik in the frontcourt because neither guy can step out and hit jumpers or make any plays from the high post. Splitter isn't an All-Star or a primary option, but he's a skilled big man with a good feel for the game who can play high/low with Tim Duncan.
He's not a guy who can command a double team in the low post and he's not really a guy who can punish teams for going small against them, but almost all the top teams in the West have high-level PF's who force you to play two-post for most of the game. Without Splitter, San Antonio doesn't have the personnel to match up them. Memphis doesn't beat them in 2011 if Splitter is playing big minutes.
So while Splitter wouldn't be that useful in a rematch with Miami in the Finals, San Antonio is going to need him if they are going to make it that far. He's not great at any one facet of the game, but when you are at 7'0, you don't really need to be. Splitter is decent at offense and decent at defense - he doesn't have any huge holes in his game, which makes him more than worth what the Spurs are paying him.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
KG: Is This It?
Kevin Garnett didn't give the Nets much during the regular season, which is what you would expect for a guy in his 19th season in the NBA. However, even in the post-season, Garnett has been pretty much running on empty. He is averaging only 20 minutes a game and not making much of an impact when he is in there. In Game 1, he had 0 points and 4 rebounds on 0-2 shooting in only 16 minutes.
When he's in the game, he's pretty much just a placeholder. While he still starts, Jason Kidd takes him out after only 4-5 minutes and he usually doesn't put him back in until the very end of the second quarter. It's not like the Nets desperately need KG out there either - Andray Blatche is more of an offensive threat while Mason Plumlee gives them more energy and athleticism on the glass and the defensive end.
At this stage in his career, KG can't really establish deep post position against bigger 5's and he no longer has the quickness to take them off the dribble. He doesn't have much lift in his legs to finish around the basket - he's pretty much only effective as a spot-up shooter from 15-20 feet, which can be taken away by a defensive player who presses up on him and forces him to put it on the floor.
On the defensive side of the ball, KG can no longer move his feet and guard players on the perimeter. The Heat were able to put him in pick-and-rolls with Chris Bosh and dictate the action - either zipping the ball to Bosh when KG shows or letting the guard attack the basket or get an easy shot when he goes under. At this point in his career, he's basically a backup center or a starter in name only.
For a guy with his pedigree and pride, the real question is how much longer he wants to keep playing. He has one year left on his contract but he's made well over $300 million dollars in his career so it's not like he needs the money. Jason Kidd has shown that he has no problem playing the hot hand and going with the best players in his rotation - there's a greater than zero chance KG falls out of it next year.
At this stage in his career, KG is strictly a 5. So when Brook Lopez comes back next season, there won't be all that many minutes for him in Brooklyn. With Lopez, Plumlee and Blatche in the fold, KG's biggest contribution could come as a veteran leader and a mentor in the locker room. That's pretty thin gruel for one of the greatest players of all-time - he could be asking himself whether he even wants to get himself ready for the grind of the next season.
If the Nets are going to have any chance in this series, they are going to need more from KG than what they've gotten from him in the playoffs or the regular season. If he has anything left in the tank, it's now or never for him. With everything else that has been going on around their team this season, there hasn't been too much talk about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last we see of KG in an NBA uniform.
When he's in the game, he's pretty much just a placeholder. While he still starts, Jason Kidd takes him out after only 4-5 minutes and he usually doesn't put him back in until the very end of the second quarter. It's not like the Nets desperately need KG out there either - Andray Blatche is more of an offensive threat while Mason Plumlee gives them more energy and athleticism on the glass and the defensive end.
At this stage in his career, KG can't really establish deep post position against bigger 5's and he no longer has the quickness to take them off the dribble. He doesn't have much lift in his legs to finish around the basket - he's pretty much only effective as a spot-up shooter from 15-20 feet, which can be taken away by a defensive player who presses up on him and forces him to put it on the floor.
On the defensive side of the ball, KG can no longer move his feet and guard players on the perimeter. The Heat were able to put him in pick-and-rolls with Chris Bosh and dictate the action - either zipping the ball to Bosh when KG shows or letting the guard attack the basket or get an easy shot when he goes under. At this point in his career, he's basically a backup center or a starter in name only.
For a guy with his pedigree and pride, the real question is how much longer he wants to keep playing. He has one year left on his contract but he's made well over $300 million dollars in his career so it's not like he needs the money. Jason Kidd has shown that he has no problem playing the hot hand and going with the best players in his rotation - there's a greater than zero chance KG falls out of it next year.
At this stage in his career, KG is strictly a 5. So when Brook Lopez comes back next season, there won't be all that many minutes for him in Brooklyn. With Lopez, Plumlee and Blatche in the fold, KG's biggest contribution could come as a veteran leader and a mentor in the locker room. That's pretty thin gruel for one of the greatest players of all-time - he could be asking himself whether he even wants to get himself ready for the grind of the next season.
If the Nets are going to have any chance in this series, they are going to need more from KG than what they've gotten from him in the playoffs or the regular season. If he has anything left in the tank, it's now or never for him. With everything else that has been going on around their team this season, there hasn't been too much talk about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last we see of KG in an NBA uniform.
Top 5 PF's of 2015
At RealGM, our position-by-position series look at the top prospects coming back to school continues with the PF position.
Monday, May 5, 2014
OKC's Weak Spots Get Exposed
Sometimes a blow-out early in a series can be the best thing to happen to a team. When you get drummed as badly as the Thunder did in Game 1, you can't have any illusions about what's going on with your roster. I'd hate to sound like a broken record, but Scott Brooks has been carrying a lot of liabilities in his rotation for a very long time. On Monday night, all those chickens came home to roost.
Thabo Sefolosha - Sefolosha is a guard who can't shoot 3's, can't put the ball on the floor and attack the rim and can't create shots for anyone else. He's one of the worst offensive SG's in the NBA. Even if he was Tony Allen on defense, which he isn't, there's no KD/Kobe Bryant type wing player on the Clippers that forces him to stay on the floor. Reggie Jackson can guard JJ Redick.
Kendrick Perkins - Perkins is the familiar punching bag for the Thunder. He does have some value in match-ups against low post scorers like Z-Bo and Gasol, but the Clippers don't have anyone he needs to guard and his offensive game speaks for itself. There was one play in the second half where he was 8 feet off Blake on a "rotation" and Blake still threw the ball right over his head for a lob to DeAndre.
Caron Butler - I've written about my man Tough Juice before. He doesn't offer much value besides spot-up shooting and he was 1-7 in Game 1. He had 5 personal fouls in 27 minutes, which tells you he's having trouble staying with the Clippers perimeter players on defense. Scott Brooks might want to ask himself why Butler is on his 4th team in 5 seasons.
Derek Fisher - I was tempted to call this post "No country for Derek Fisher" and I still might save that one for later in the series, so don't steal it. Whose he guarding on the Clippers - Paul, Reddick, Darren Collison or Jamal Crawford? Go to his basketball-reference page and take a look at how his stats started cratering at age 34-35 ... and he's 39 now. This is embarrassing for everyone involved.
I feel pretty confident that Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones 3 are better than those 4 players because most NBA players are - Sefolosha, Perkins, Butler and Fisher are all below average players and that's being generous. It's going to be hard to win an NBA championship with so many weak spots in your rotation. We'll see if Brooks will make any adjustments.
Here's my theory about why he sticks with veteran role players far beyond the point of reason. As a former journeyman himself, Brooks had to convince himself that the intangibles and basketball IQ he brought to the floor meant something to a team. So when he sees guys like Butler and Fish, he's really reliving his own career and getting back at all the coaches who benched him for the more talented younger players.
As Game 1 proved, there's no more time in OKC for their coach's self deception. He needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror and ask himself whether he needs to be divvying out playing time based off of merit or off tenure and seniority. The beauty of the NBA playoffs is that if you are going to BS yourself, someone is eventually going to call you on it.
Thabo Sefolosha - Sefolosha is a guard who can't shoot 3's, can't put the ball on the floor and attack the rim and can't create shots for anyone else. He's one of the worst offensive SG's in the NBA. Even if he was Tony Allen on defense, which he isn't, there's no KD/Kobe Bryant type wing player on the Clippers that forces him to stay on the floor. Reggie Jackson can guard JJ Redick.
Kendrick Perkins - Perkins is the familiar punching bag for the Thunder. He does have some value in match-ups against low post scorers like Z-Bo and Gasol, but the Clippers don't have anyone he needs to guard and his offensive game speaks for itself. There was one play in the second half where he was 8 feet off Blake on a "rotation" and Blake still threw the ball right over his head for a lob to DeAndre.
Caron Butler - I've written about my man Tough Juice before. He doesn't offer much value besides spot-up shooting and he was 1-7 in Game 1. He had 5 personal fouls in 27 minutes, which tells you he's having trouble staying with the Clippers perimeter players on defense. Scott Brooks might want to ask himself why Butler is on his 4th team in 5 seasons.
Derek Fisher - I was tempted to call this post "No country for Derek Fisher" and I still might save that one for later in the series, so don't steal it. Whose he guarding on the Clippers - Paul, Reddick, Darren Collison or Jamal Crawford? Go to his basketball-reference page and take a look at how his stats started cratering at age 34-35 ... and he's 39 now. This is embarrassing for everyone involved.
I feel pretty confident that Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones 3 are better than those 4 players because most NBA players are - Sefolosha, Perkins, Butler and Fisher are all below average players and that's being generous. It's going to be hard to win an NBA championship with so many weak spots in your rotation. We'll see if Brooks will make any adjustments.
Here's my theory about why he sticks with veteran role players far beyond the point of reason. As a former journeyman himself, Brooks had to convince himself that the intangibles and basketball IQ he brought to the floor meant something to a team. So when he sees guys like Butler and Fish, he's really reliving his own career and getting back at all the coaches who benched him for the more talented younger players.
As Game 1 proved, there's no more time in OKC for their coach's self deception. He needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror and ask himself whether he needs to be divvying out playing time based off of merit or off tenure and seniority. The beauty of the NBA playoffs is that if you are going to BS yourself, someone is eventually going to call you on it.
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