Kevin Love for Terrence Jones, Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik
Houston one of the only realistic destinations for Love on the board - the most difficult part about trading a superstar is finding a team he would be willing to sign with that wouldn't have to empty its cupboard to get him. Love would form an absolutely devastating Big Three - Howard at the rim, Love at the three-point line and Harden with the ball in his hands. That group would score all the points, get all the rebounds and have a ton of passing too.
If he goes to Boston or the LA Lakers, there's no real reason for him to sign an extension, given the lack of talent on hand. The other teams in the mix - Chicago, Golden State - don't really have the pieces to compete with what Houston could offer. Phoenix might be the most interesting dark horse possibility, but I still think the Rockets can offer the best package of young pieces with upside who can also win now.
The problem for Minnesota is that even if they trade Love, they still have Pekovic, Martin and Rubio on the roster, so they couldn't commit to a full rebuild. All three of those guys have holes in their games, but they are still good players who can be starters on a good team. They aren't that far off from being a playoff team, as is. This is how they would look if that trade went down:
PG - Rubio
SG - Martin
SF - Parsons
PF - Jones
C - Pekovic, Asik, Dieng
From there, it would be easy enough to move one of their C's to bolster their perimeter depth and you have a team that could compete for the playoffs right away. It sounds crazy to say that they could be a better team without Love, but I'm much higher on Parsons and Jones than most people. I think both of those guys have the potential to be All-Stars.
Parsons is a 6'10 230 small forward who can shoot, handle and pass like a guard. He's got unlimited range on his jumper, he can get his shot almost any time he wants off the dribble and he can create shots for his teammates. 17/5/4 on 47% shooting is really good for a SF, especially for a guy with two-way ability. He's also put up those numbers without ever having the chance to dominate the ball - he had a 19.3 usage rating this season. He could easily get up to 20+ a game in Minnesota.
Jones got tore up by LaMarcus Aldridge in the first round, but he's still a really interesting young player with a ton of upside. He's 6'9 240 with a 7'2 wingspan, he has a near 40' vertical and he can handle the ball like a guard. While he's not a great shooter, he's a very smart player who knows how to move without the ball and impact the game without scoring. Check out his per-36 minute numbers as a 22-year old: 16 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks on 54% shooting. That's a 19.9 PER for a guy who should be a senior in college.
Parsons and Jones are role players in Houston, but they both have room to expand their offensive games if given more responsibility in Minnesota. Those two + Rubio on the break would be a very exciting team and they would offer way more two-way ability upfront than the current Wolves front-court.
That's the kind of haul I want back for Kevin Love: two under-25 front-court starters with two-way ability who can be the core of a good team for a long time.
Monday, May 19, 2014
Sunday, May 18, 2014
Friday, May 16, 2014
Otto Porter's Future
With one of the most successful seasons in franchise history coming to an end on Thursday, the question for the Wizards is whether they take the next step or fall back to the pack in the Eastern Conference. A big part of the answer will depend on re-signing free agents Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat, which leads into the other fascinating storyline for them this off-season - what happens to Otto Porter?
Ariza is a great fit in Washington. At 6'8 210 he's the epitome of the 3-and-D player - an elite athlete who can match up with all three perimeter positions and absolutely stroke the ball from three. In the playoffs, he averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds a game and shot 47% from 3 on 5 attempts a game. At 28, he's still in the prime of his career and could be a starter on an elite team until his athleticism starts to decline.
The problem is if you give Ariza a big contract, how will Porter, the No. 3 overall pick in 2013, ever get on the floor? They just signed Martell Webster to a 4-year $21 million contract last off-season and while he had a disappointing playoff run, a team expecting to contend for a top 4 seed isn't going to throw him to the curb to give an untested young player big minutes.
The unfortunate part about it is that Porter is a really good young player. Don't let his performance in the Summer League or his poor production in extremely spotty minutes as a rookie fool you. He's a very skilled 6'8 210 wing who can put the ball on the floor, knock down mid-range jumpers and play as a point forward. However, he's not an elite athlete or a great three-point shooter, so his ceiling isn't that high.
That's what's really insane about the Porter selection - if you were going to draft a guy at No. 3 who was going to sit for a few years on a playoff contender, why not take a high-upside pick like Giannis? What kind of sense does it make to take a low ceiling, NBA ready player at No. 3 and than glue him to the bench? How is that any way to maximize a Top 3 selection?
Even if Porter did get a lot of minutes early in his career, do you really want him taking the ball out of the hands of John Wall and Bradley Beal? If you take a PG and a SG with Top 3 picks, you want a very low usage SF next to them to maximize their talents. There aren't enough basketballs to go around for three star perimeter players - that's like the Detroit Pistons taking WR's every year in the Top 10.
And where you look at the Wizards going forward, the real concern isn't on the perimeter, where it's easy to find 3-and-D wings like Ariza or Webster, it's upfront, as Nene and Gortat move deeper into their 30's. They've really got nothing behind those two - in terms of roster balance, it would have made a lot more sense to go with Alex Len, Nerlens Noel or Cody Zeller at No. 3. What happens if Nene gets hurt again?
In and of themselves, none of these issues are necessarily a big deal for the Wizards next season. They can re-sign Gortat and Ariza, cobble together some backup big men and make a run at a Top 4 seed. However, the toughest leap in the NBA is to go from good to great and not maximizing a No. 3 pick in either the short or the long-term is an awfully big opportunity the Wizards left on the board.
Otto Porter will have a long and successful NBA career, but he may need to go somewhere else besides Washington to show what he can do. Of course, if they try to trade him after they re-sign Ariza, they will be getting pennies on the dollar. None of this had to happen, but the fact that it did makes me dubious the Wizards front office is really going to put together a championship-caliber roster anytime soon.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Miami's Wild Card
The Miami Heat are now 8-1 in this year's playoffs, but they really haven't played all that impressively. They are in the junior circuit (aka the Eastern Conference) and they have been scraping by some fairly mediocre teams. The real concern is their supporting cast, or what's left of it in Year 4 of the great experiment on South Beach.
Let's take a look at some of the guys who round out the back of their rotation:
Shane Battier - This is going to be his last season in the NBA, which is a good thing because he is pretty much done. He's still an average three point shooter, but he doesn't move well without the ball and he can't attack a close-out. He no longer has much lateral quickness and he's an average at best defender. Anything you get out of him at this point is found money. He has a 6.6 PER in the playoffs.
Rashard Lewis - Age has pretty much reduced him to being a one-trick pony and that's spotting up from the 3-point line and hitting 3's at a pretty average rate (32% in the playoffs). He can't really defend a position anymore - at best, he can stay in front of slower wings and stay behind big men who can't really score. He doesn't have much of an impact when he's in the game, as his 6.8 playoff PER suggests.
James Jones - The definition of a one-trick pony. He can shoot 3's, but he gives you nothing else. The big problem is on defense where he has to be hidden on non-threats. When he was matched up with Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson at points in Game 5, Miami might as well have just conceded the 2 points and went about their business.
Ray Allen (38) and Birdman (35) are still functional players but they are clearly in decline, even from what they gave last year. The cumulative effect is of a very old team that despite its reputation can't actually blow teams off the floor athletically. The only players in their supporting cast on the right side of 30 are Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.
They have gotten away with in the first two rounds but the level of competition is going to ratchet up pretty quickly. Indiana has always matched up pretty well with them, but even if they implode and Miami has a cakewalk to the NBA Finals, they will eventually have to play a Western Conference team that will be both battle-tested and deep.
The one wild card Erik Spoelstra has in his back pocket is Micheal Beasley. We might not see him early in a series, but if the Heat have to come back to a deficit, Spo has shown no hesitation to go deep into his bench and try unorthodox things as a series progresses. Miami needs athleticism, scoring punch and shooting to complement the Big Three and those are three things Beasley can bring to the floor.
It's not like he played badly in his time in the rotation early in the season. Beasley averaged 8 points and 3 rebounds a game on 50% shooting in 15 minutes a game and had a 16.7 PER. He fell out of favor because of his defensive lapses and overall inconsistency, but it's not like Miami is getting much from the combination of Jones, Lewis and Battier on that side of the ball.
Beasley is a head case but he is still a very talented basketball player. At 6'8 240, he can put the ball on the floor, shoot the 3 and play above the rim. He's 25 years old and he's at the peak of his athletic ability - if you put him on a frontcourt with Bosh and LeBron, you suddenly have a very athletic group that can stretch the floor, attack you from every position in the frontcourt and put up points in a hurry.
The Heat clearly don't want to use him, but they may not have a choice. Charlotte had no chance of competing once Al Jefferson went down and Brooklyn gave them a much tougher series than the final (4-1) would indicate. Indiana, San Antonio, OKC and the Clippers can all test the Heat in ways their first two opponents haven't. I doubt they'll be able to count on Battier, Lewis or Jones when the chips are down.
This is not the team from 2-3 years ago - they are an old team that relies on LeBron James to do just about everything. I think playing with LeBron can make Beasley an effective player on both sides of the floor, which is good, because they might end up needing him if they are going to three-peat.
Let's take a look at some of the guys who round out the back of their rotation:
Shane Battier - This is going to be his last season in the NBA, which is a good thing because he is pretty much done. He's still an average three point shooter, but he doesn't move well without the ball and he can't attack a close-out. He no longer has much lateral quickness and he's an average at best defender. Anything you get out of him at this point is found money. He has a 6.6 PER in the playoffs.
Rashard Lewis - Age has pretty much reduced him to being a one-trick pony and that's spotting up from the 3-point line and hitting 3's at a pretty average rate (32% in the playoffs). He can't really defend a position anymore - at best, he can stay in front of slower wings and stay behind big men who can't really score. He doesn't have much of an impact when he's in the game, as his 6.8 playoff PER suggests.
James Jones - The definition of a one-trick pony. He can shoot 3's, but he gives you nothing else. The big problem is on defense where he has to be hidden on non-threats. When he was matched up with Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson at points in Game 5, Miami might as well have just conceded the 2 points and went about their business.
Ray Allen (38) and Birdman (35) are still functional players but they are clearly in decline, even from what they gave last year. The cumulative effect is of a very old team that despite its reputation can't actually blow teams off the floor athletically. The only players in their supporting cast on the right side of 30 are Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.
They have gotten away with in the first two rounds but the level of competition is going to ratchet up pretty quickly. Indiana has always matched up pretty well with them, but even if they implode and Miami has a cakewalk to the NBA Finals, they will eventually have to play a Western Conference team that will be both battle-tested and deep.
The one wild card Erik Spoelstra has in his back pocket is Micheal Beasley. We might not see him early in a series, but if the Heat have to come back to a deficit, Spo has shown no hesitation to go deep into his bench and try unorthodox things as a series progresses. Miami needs athleticism, scoring punch and shooting to complement the Big Three and those are three things Beasley can bring to the floor.
It's not like he played badly in his time in the rotation early in the season. Beasley averaged 8 points and 3 rebounds a game on 50% shooting in 15 minutes a game and had a 16.7 PER. He fell out of favor because of his defensive lapses and overall inconsistency, but it's not like Miami is getting much from the combination of Jones, Lewis and Battier on that side of the ball.
Beasley is a head case but he is still a very talented basketball player. At 6'8 240, he can put the ball on the floor, shoot the 3 and play above the rim. He's 25 years old and he's at the peak of his athletic ability - if you put him on a frontcourt with Bosh and LeBron, you suddenly have a very athletic group that can stretch the floor, attack you from every position in the frontcourt and put up points in a hurry.
The Heat clearly don't want to use him, but they may not have a choice. Charlotte had no chance of competing once Al Jefferson went down and Brooklyn gave them a much tougher series than the final (4-1) would indicate. Indiana, San Antonio, OKC and the Clippers can all test the Heat in ways their first two opponents haven't. I doubt they'll be able to count on Battier, Lewis or Jones when the chips are down.
This is not the team from 2-3 years ago - they are an old team that relies on LeBron James to do just about everything. I think playing with LeBron can make Beasley an effective player on both sides of the floor, which is good, because they might end up needing him if they are going to three-peat.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
The CJ McCollum Problem
At RealGM, a look at why the Blazers lottery pick doesn't fit with their roster.
Will Barton Makes a Splash
After getting solid play from Barton in spot minutes in Games 2 and 3 against the Spurs, Terry Stotts gave him his first extended run of the playoffs in Game 4. He responded with the kind of game that puts a young player on the map in the NBA - 17 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists on 7-13 shooting in 29 minutes.
Barton has always had the talent; he's just had a hard time cracking a Portland rotation stuffed with veterans in his first two seasons in the league. He declared for the draft after only two seasons at Memphis and after a two-year internship on the bench, he's now a 23 year old ready for a bigger role in the NBA.
At 6'6 175 with a 6'10 wingspan, Barton is an electric athlete with a solid all-around game who can impact the game in a number of ways. In his sophomore season at Memphis, he was the best player on a 30-win team, averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 1.5 steals on 51% shooting.
In the draft process, I'm always a fan of guys who can stuff a stat sheet. Barton's length and athleticism allows him to impact the game as a defensive player and a rebounder and makes him almost impossible to stay in front of off the dribble. He has the skill to beat a defense from the perimeter (shooting 35% from 3 on 3 attempts a game as a sophomore) as well as create shots for his teammates if he is doubled.
He slipped in the draft for a number of reasons - his thin frame, his occasional bursts of wildness in college, doubt about Memphis program and their lackluster regular season schedule - but the biggest was circumstance. Barton had the misfortune of declaring for the draft in a year stacked with SG's - Bradley Beal, Terrence Ross, Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers and Evan Fournier were all taken ahead of him.
* Also - John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Orlando Johnson and Tomas Satoransky.
If he had stayed in school for his junior season, he would have been one of the best players in the country. Keep this in mind - he was in the same high school class as Victor Oladipo and he was a much, much better player in their first two seasons in college. Oladipo didn't explode on the scene until his junior season (when Barton was already in the NBA). He averaged 11 points and 5 rebounds on 47% shooting as a sophomore.
As the No. 41 pick in the draft, the odds were against Barton in the NBA, particularly in his rookie season, when there was little chance he was going to crack the rotation. This season, the signing of Mo Williams and the drafting of CJ McCollum pushed him further down the pecking order - the NBA is a business and an untested second-round pick has little chance of unseating a former All-Star or a lottery pick.
However, with their backs against the wall against San Antonio, Stotts had no reason not to roll out Barton and see what he could do. His athleticism and ability to attack the rim gives them another dimension on offense and improves their team speed on defense. His shooting percentages will come back to Earth if given more minutes, but he has a 22.7 PER in the playoffs for a reason - the guy can play.
Barton has little chance of unseating Wesley Matthews next season, but he could become a deadly 6th man for the Blazers. You want to bring guys off the bench who give your line-up a different look and change the complexion of the game and Barton has those qualities in spades. If Portland can't find a spot for him in the rotation, someone else will.
Barton has always had the talent; he's just had a hard time cracking a Portland rotation stuffed with veterans in his first two seasons in the league. He declared for the draft after only two seasons at Memphis and after a two-year internship on the bench, he's now a 23 year old ready for a bigger role in the NBA.
At 6'6 175 with a 6'10 wingspan, Barton is an electric athlete with a solid all-around game who can impact the game in a number of ways. In his sophomore season at Memphis, he was the best player on a 30-win team, averaging 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 1.5 steals on 51% shooting.
In the draft process, I'm always a fan of guys who can stuff a stat sheet. Barton's length and athleticism allows him to impact the game as a defensive player and a rebounder and makes him almost impossible to stay in front of off the dribble. He has the skill to beat a defense from the perimeter (shooting 35% from 3 on 3 attempts a game as a sophomore) as well as create shots for his teammates if he is doubled.
He slipped in the draft for a number of reasons - his thin frame, his occasional bursts of wildness in college, doubt about Memphis program and their lackluster regular season schedule - but the biggest was circumstance. Barton had the misfortune of declaring for the draft in a year stacked with SG's - Bradley Beal, Terrence Ross, Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers and Evan Fournier were all taken ahead of him.
* Also - John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Orlando Johnson and Tomas Satoransky.
If he had stayed in school for his junior season, he would have been one of the best players in the country. Keep this in mind - he was in the same high school class as Victor Oladipo and he was a much, much better player in their first two seasons in college. Oladipo didn't explode on the scene until his junior season (when Barton was already in the NBA). He averaged 11 points and 5 rebounds on 47% shooting as a sophomore.
As the No. 41 pick in the draft, the odds were against Barton in the NBA, particularly in his rookie season, when there was little chance he was going to crack the rotation. This season, the signing of Mo Williams and the drafting of CJ McCollum pushed him further down the pecking order - the NBA is a business and an untested second-round pick has little chance of unseating a former All-Star or a lottery pick.
However, with their backs against the wall against San Antonio, Stotts had no reason not to roll out Barton and see what he could do. His athleticism and ability to attack the rim gives them another dimension on offense and improves their team speed on defense. His shooting percentages will come back to Earth if given more minutes, but he has a 22.7 PER in the playoffs for a reason - the guy can play.
Barton has little chance of unseating Wesley Matthews next season, but he could become a deadly 6th man for the Blazers. You want to bring guys off the bench who give your line-up a different look and change the complexion of the game and Barton has those qualities in spades. If Portland can't find a spot for him in the rotation, someone else will.
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